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    08 June

    6月5日的2年期美国国债

    一个破非农就业数据好于预期,就让2年期美国国债的收益率跳升了30多个bp
    btw:虽然非农就业人数减少的量小于预期,但是仍然是负值,而且失业率还比预期高了0.2个百分点
    从收益率历史图上看,当天之前是心电图般的振动,当天却是像放了一个冲天炮
     
    一帮鸟人疯狂的卖两年的国债,这是为什么啊,觉得美国今年会加息?
    失业率那么高,大制造业公司纷纷破产,消费低迷,加什么息啊
    真的就那么乐观?
     
    coupon为7/8的2年国债,在价格跌到99-18时,短暂停留了一下,然后直接冲到了99-11,已经很雷人了,结果后半夜又跌到了99-5
     
    从这个事情总结出几点:
    1.什么事情都可能发生
    2.千万不要以为跌到了底部就可以买了,因为大家永远猜不透底部在哪里,还是上涨的时候买吧(这是老声常谈)
    3.估计当天的状况是价格下跌触发了一些止损盘,并且有投机力量的参与
    4.同样的数据,不同的人解读千差万别,关键是要闻到市场的味道和偏好,所以最好处在市场的中心。身在万里之外的我们,怎么能了解那些美国的交易员在想什么?
    太难了
     
    有人说是因为近期有近1000亿美国国债的标售,但是这个消息早知道了啊,怎么到周五才反应,而且本周标售的国债没有2年期的
     
    当你看透了别人,就控制了局面,问题是可以么?
     
     
     

    Comments (2)

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    12 June
    Lin Wangwrote:
    美国5月非农就业人口减少34.5万人,远低于之前预估的减少52万,大家认为可能经济危机已经达到了抛物线的底端,美国将会从经济危机的低谷缓慢上升,抱有这种想法,美元指数肯定会上升了。
    8 June

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